Papillion, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS63 KOAX 231945
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
245 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely across northeast Nebraska
  during the evening (30-60%). There is a Marginal Risk for
  severe wind and hail (level 1 of 5).

- The next substantial chance for thunderstorms arrives early in
  the day Thursday. The highest chance for storms (40-70%)
  looks to occur across central and southern Nebraska.

- Very warm and humid conditions return this weekend with the
  Heat Index likely exceeding 100 degrees on Sunday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A closed 500MB low is centered just north of the South Dakota /
Canadian border this afternoon with a broad area of low
pressure and cold front extending southward across the Northern
Plains. Pronounced northwest flow extends across the northern
CONUS with the moisture axis extending from the eastern Dakotas
to south central Nebraska. The cold front will gradually move
from northwest to southeast across the forecast area this
evening through the overnight hours.

After morning showers and cloud cover, areas closer to the
surface boundary have recovered with 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE
values and enhanced cumulus across north central Nebraska and
across southern SD. Thunderstorms have already developed this
afternoon along/east of this front across parts of western MN.
We will be watching the convective trends farther to the
southwest of this initial convection. Convective allowing model
consensus favors initiation near the NE/SD border between
21-00z with generally weakly organized activity. Deep layer bulk
shear near 40kts coincident with expected CI late this
afternoon suggests isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. Instability will be a limiting factor across most of
the forecast area - including the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas
and western Iowa. Nonetheless, a band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will try to work through the area early tonight
with the frontal passage. Storm coverage is expected to be
scattered.

This flow pattern persists with a strengthening of the upper
jet by Wednesday and Thursday. The jet will become more zonal
by Thursday. An upper wave moves across the Rockies and High
Plains during this time with convection likely near and east of
the frontal boundary. There is still uncertainty where the
convection (likely MCS) will track during this time. The 12z
deterministic guidance is much more favorable for precip
placement in western and central Nebraska Wednesday night into
Thursday, and the prevailing mean flow would steer thunderstorms
into Kansas.


Temperatures stay mild with highs in the 70s to low 80s through
Friday. However, there is a pattern change for the weekend with
Pacific Northwest troughing and downstream ridging over the
Central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will likely move
across the area on Saturday, but the timing of its passage make
for a tricky temperature/heat index forecast. We lowered the
values for Saturday with this forecast update. By Sunday, 850MB
temperatures between 22-26C appear likely across the area. This
would set the stage for very warm and humid. We`re in range of a
Heat Advisory if the warm sector keeps this placement on Sunday
and Monday. It`s also important to note that we`re getting to
the time of year where evapotranspiration will play a more
important role in dewpoints and heat index values. As the west
coast trough slides E-NE, upper level diffluence and southwest
flow should set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms
over the High Plains, however, the timing and placement of these
features will need to be adjusted with time. At this point, the
best severe weather threat would be west of the forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The showers that have been moving across central and northern
Nebraska this morning have largely dissipated. Very light
showers could still impact KLNK early this afternoon, but TS is
not expected and the forest is trending drier. A scattered
cumulus field has developed early this afternoon with cloud
bases generally between 2-4kft. Left MVFR ceilings out of the
TAF at this point, but we can`t completely rule out a broken
ceiling late this afternoon or early this evening - especially
at KOFK. Otherwise, a cold front will move through tonight and
could bring a band of scattered showers as well as winds that
gradually veer to the northwest after 06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...CLF